Olympics Matchday 3 Roundup, Quarterfinals Preview
Are France the undisputed favorites? What the Canada drone scandal reveals about spying in sport and a discussion of upcoming ties.
Alejandro Lozada: It’s barely been a week and we are, all of a sudden, at the quarterfinal stage of the Olympics. France plays Argentina right as the Enzo Fernandez discourse was finally dying down, Morocco face the U.S., Egypt square up against Paraguay after upsetting Spain’s B team, which means La Furia is left to play Japan.
Before we discuss the quarterfinals, I did want to process the end of this group stage. France and Japan dominated their respective groups, and now play Argentina and Spain, respectively, who each had costly slip ups in this group stage. The U.S. and Paraguay climbed back after abysmal first games while Morocco and Egypt teetered between clinical, dynamic and sloppy. Dan, you watched the Americans — what’d you think of their performance?
Daniel Miller: The U.S. dominated in a 3-0 defeat of Guinea. A world class free kick from Mihailovic got the U.S. started. The trio of Yow, Parades, and Aaronson looked great in the first half, creating lots of chances and pressuring Guinea’s back line resulting in a goal from Parades. In the second half, the U.S. changed things up tactically - not quite parking the bus, but definitely allowing Guinea more possession and playing further back defensively. Still they did not give away many quality scoring chances and Parades ended up with a brace before subbing off.
Alejandro: Something that’s been on my mind since the last matchday is the pace of this tournament. The players get two days of rest after each game and then they’re back at it. Blink and you’ll miss it. I wasn’t surprised to see so many changes this past matchday — including Spain’s entire lineup virtually shuffled out. They admittedly get one extra day ahead of the quarter finals but I do still wonder how much of a toll this schedule is taking on the players.
Daniel: I think you are right to be concerned about the toll this schedule could be taking on players. Many club coaches including Jurgen Klopp have complained about the amount of games played and advocated for the sporting bodies to be more concerned about the players bodies. I did find it interesting that there were two short breaks during the last U.S. game to give players a rest from the heat. That’s not something I’ve seen before and is a step in the right direction, as are the additional subs that teams are allowed. But I still think there are too many games in general.
Alejandro: The coaches at the Olympics understand this as well. There’s been heavy squad rotation throughout. Even so, I just can’t imagine what state some of these players will arrive at club training in. Benfica’s first league match is on August 11 — I’ll be surprised if Nicolás Otamendi, who was at the Copa América and has played every minute at these Olympics, is still standing on two legs come September.
Daniel: Let’s talk briefly about the women’s tournament because there are some fascinating stories. The U.S. dominated their group winning all three games and now head to the quarterfinals to face Japan. Marta received a red card which might spell the end of her international tournament. Reigning gold medalists, Canada, earned a six point deduction in a drone spying scandal and still clinched a spot in the quarterfinals. As more details come out about the scandal, it appears the men’s senior team may also be implicated. We’ll see what the long term fallout of this scandal will be, but with the Canadian team still qualifying for the quarterfinals, the 6 point deduction has not proven to be all that punitive.
Alejandro: I admittedly haven’t watched much of the women’s tournament, but did find it a bit humorous that Canada still qualified in second place despite the six point deduction. And they fessed up to everything so quickly! It’s very Canadian. Remember when Marcelo Bielsa got let off with just a fine at Leeds for spying on every single opponent in the Championship? (At least he claimed not to know it was against the rules.)
The men’s team being dragged into this is a bit surprising. A recent episode of the Guardian Football Weekly podcast made mention of how it’s likely that many other national teams regularly engage in this type of spying. I’d be willing to believe it, too, given how unnecessary it seemed for Canada to keep tabs on puny New Zealand. Bottom line is you either let everyone do it or — ideally — cut it out completely. Though, realistically, I’m sure that within a year every team will be using some version of this Chinese bird drone that’s been making the rounds on social media.
Anyway, back to the men’s tournament. Looking ahead, who do you expect to see in the semifinals?
Daniel: My predictions are that France, Paraguay, the U.S., and Japan will advance. France will edge out Argentina with a bump of confidence from being the Olympic hosts. I believe Paraguay beat Egypt because they are more creative offensively. The U.S. trio of Parades, Yow, and Aaronson continue their strong performance to take the U.S. past Morocco. And Japan continue their dominance to beat a shaky Spain.
Alejandro: France might feel they have a score to settle with Argentina, even if these are mostly U23 players. I can see them overwhelming Mascherano’s side. The rest of these matchups feel like tossups to me, though Morocco and Paraguay have a bit more talent and experience. I’d give them slight advantages to get through to the semis. Finally, this Japan side seems like trouble with or without the ball. I wouldn’t be surprised if they smash and grab their way through, though I can equally see the Spanish smothering Japan out of the game. On a tactical level, that’s the matchup that excites me the most.
My parting thought is that as the games have gone by, it has really sunk in that France are a level above the rest. This feels like their tournament to lose, but we will see soon enough won’t we?